News
Methodology updates and the monthly inflation brief — what a fixed 1980 household basket actually costs — priced with real retail and transaction data and compared to the official CPI, month by month.
The BEA re-priced three PCE categories on September 30 and revised five years of history: July PCE went from 3.7% to 3.4% with no price moving. The CPI is unchanged; the Reality Index gap to the Fed’s gauge widened by about 30 basis points.
A full walk-through of the method — why a fair public critique first cut the headline from ~32% to ~17%, and why extending transaction-price transportation across the full history, then moving to a fixed 2000 basket, brought the cumulative gap to ~32%.
A dated archive of the monthly print — what the fixed 1980 basket cost versus the official CPI, one entry per release. Newest first.
The full monthly series, 1998 to date, with month-on-month readings, is on the monthly index page. Briefs marked restated were rebuilt on that series on 23 September 2026.
RI +4.33% vs CPI +3.40% YoY · cumulative gap +34.9% · restated
Gasoline re-accelerated — +27.4% YoY, a Labor Day record — and the gap held at 94 basis points as transportation ran +7.0% against an official index that slowed to 3.40%.
RI +4.27% vs CPI +3.36% YoY · cumulative gap +34.9% · restated
Gasoline kept cooling — +24.6% YoY, down from June — but the monthly gap widened to 94 basis points as the official index decelerated faster than the prices households actually face.
RI +4.41% vs CPI +3.53% YoY · cumulative gap +34.8%
Energy cooled from May’s peak — gasoline eased to +26.7% YoY — and the Reality Index slipped to +4.41%, holding about 88 basis points above the official CPI on its structural housing and vehicle edge.
RI +5.17% vs CPI +4.25% YoY · cumulative gap +34.7% · restated
An energy-led month: gasoline +40.5% pulled the official index up toward the Reality Index, compressing the monthly gap to ~80 basis points.
RI +4.72% vs CPI +3.81% YoY · cumulative gap +34.6% · restated
Restated on the current methodology — fixed 2000 weights, tenure housing, transaction-price transportation, latest-available data. Energy began to accelerate.
RI +4.46% vs CPI +3.26% YoY · cumulative gap +34.6% · restated
Used-vehicle prices kept transportation at the top of the index (restated), the widest spring monthly gap, before the energy surge narrowed the margin.
The launch announcement, kept as published. Its figures reflect the launch-era method; the current basis and headline are set out in the methodology article above and on the headline rate page.