Reality Index · monthly

The Reality Index, month by month.

The same fixed-basket index the headline uses, priced every month from January 1998 to August 2026 and set against official CPI on the same unadjusted basis — so the two can be compared at the cadence the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes.

August 2026, month on month
+0.31%
official CPI +0.32% (NSA)
August 2026, year over year
+4.33%
official CPI +3.40% · gap +94 bps
Level, 1980 = 100
548.3
CPI 406.5 on the same base
Months above CPI since 1999
268 of 332
year-over-year readings
Year over year, 1999–2026
Reality Index (solid) vs CPI-U All Items NSA (dashed), monthly
-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%20002002200420062008201020122014201620182020202220242026Reality Index +4.33%Official CPI +3.40%realityindex.co
Month on month, last 36 months
Not seasonally adjusted, both series. Red: Reality Index. Blue: CPI-U.
-1%-0%+0%+0%+1%+2%Jan 2024Jul 2024Jan 2025Jul 2025Jan 2026Jul 2026realityindex.co

Last thirteen months

MonthRI levelRI YoYCPI YoYGap (bps)RI MoMCPI MoM
August 2026548.3+4.33%+3.40%+94+0.31%+0.32%
July 2026546.6+4.27%+3.36%+91+0.06%-0.01%
June 2026546.3+4.41%+3.53%+88-0.29%-0.35%
May 2026547.9+5.17%+4.25%+92+0.75%+0.63%
April 2026543.8+4.72%+3.81%+91+0.81%+0.85%
March 2026539.5+4.46%+3.26%+120+1.23%+1.05%
February 2026532.9+3.47%+2.41%+105+0.41%+0.47%
January 2026530.8+3.45%+2.39%+106+0.45%+0.37%
December 2025528.4+3.76%+2.68%+109+0.13%-0.02%
November 2025527.7+3.86%+2.74%+113+0.17%-0.10%
October 2025526.8+3.89%+2.79%+110-0.05%-0.10%
September 2025527.0+4.21%+3.01%+119+0.28%+0.25%
August 2025525.6+4.04%+2.92%+112+0.25%+0.29%

August 2026 by bucket

BucketWeightYoYMoM
Housing35.8%+3.52%+0.27%
Transportation18.1%+7.01%+0.37%
Discretionary13.0%+2.68%-0.04%
Groceries9.8%+2.19%-0.04%
Health care6.5%+5.56%+0.45%
Utilities6.2%+4.00%-0.62%
Dining out5.6%+3.37%+0.25%
Communications2.4%+1.13%+2.33%
Education2.2%+3.37%+1.40%
Pets0.5%+2.88%+0.17%

How the monthly series is built

Same index, finer clock. Each of the ten buckets is priced monthly from the series below, then benchmarked: every calendar year’s twelve readings are scaled so their mean equals the published annual bucket value, with the scaling factor interpolated smoothly between year midpoints so there is no January step. The index is the fixed-2000-basket weighted mean of the ten, exactly as the annual index is. As a result the annual mean of this monthly index reproduces the published annual Reality Index in every year, to three decimals.

Seven buckets from BLS monthly series (not seasonally adjusted): groceries, dining out, utilities, communications, education, discretionary and pets each follow the corresponding CPI component month to month, at the Reality Index’s level.

Housing uses the owner-cost model at monthly resolution: Freddie Mac 30-year rates averaged monthly (a decaying twelve-year vintage of past rates for existing owners, the current rate for new buyers), the FHFA all-transactions house price index, fixed property-tax, insurance and maintenance rates, and the Census homeownership share to blend owners with renters. The renter leg follows the CPI rent index through 2014 and Zillow’s ZORI from 2015.

Transportation is a fixed-weight composite of seven legs: Manheim’s used-vehicle index, gasoline, insurance, maintenance, public transit and vehicle fees from BLS, and — for the monthly shape only — the CPI new-vehicles index, because no contiguous monthly history of transaction prices is public. The annual level, to which the monthly series is benchmarked, carries Kelley Blue Book transaction prices where the annual method uses them.

Health care comes from the KFF employer survey, which is annual; the monthly series interpolates between annual values and carries no monthly signal. It is disclosed here rather than hidden in a footnote because it is 6.5% of the basket.

Disclosures. The series begins in January 1998 because two BLS components (motor-vehicle fees and pets) start in December 1997. BLS published no October 2025 CPI because of the federal shutdown; that month is interpolated in every affected series, as BLS itself does in its year-over-year figures (2025-10, 2025-11). Readings for the current year are provisional until the annual value is published and the year is benchmarked. Month-on-month readings are noisy by nature; the year-over-year rate remains the headline.

Restatement, 23 September 2026. Monthly prints for January to August 2026 were originally built by growing the 2025 annual value of each bucket by its year-over-year change, with the owner side of housing carried forward. Moving to this series changed the January–May readings by 0.13 to 0.23 points and August from +4.87% to +4.33%; June and July were unchanged within 0.05. Each affected brief carries a note.

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Monthly index levels, CPI-U NSA, year-over-year and month-on-month rates, cumulative gap, and all ten bucket levels, 1998 to August 2026.