Working document · Not public · For internal use

Pre-launch to-do list.

Everything outstanding before Reality Index v1 can credibly launch at realityindex.co. Items are prioritized P0 (launch blocker), P1 (should-do before launch), P2 (nice-to-have, v1.5+).

01Launch blockers (P0)

Things that genuinely cannot ship without. Without these, the project either doesn't render correctly, has methodology gaps that critics would seize on, or is missing core editorial content.

• Write the ADI methodology statement

  P0 L Done. One-pager published at adi_methodology.html (~1,700 words, general reader). The basket spec serves as the technical companion document.

• Update Reality Index methodology one-pager & paper to reference ADI

  P0 S Done. The methodology docs were written before the ADI existed. All four references to the "Middle Class America Index — in development" have been updated to link to the live ADI chart and basket spec.

• Refresh headline composite (reality_index_v1.html) or retire it

  P0 M Done. Refreshed with all 18 items shown as individual indexed lines + CPI baseline, with bucket-tab filtering (All / Food / Energy / Housing / Health care / Services). Sidesteps the weighting debate, which is deferred to v1.5 (weighted composite that totals all lines together).

02Should-do before launch (P1)

Things that significantly improve the project before going public. Not strictly required, but each one closes a real critique vector or fills a UX gap.

• Build /news section (canonical home for updates)

  P1 L Done. Static per-post files with permalink URLs, RSS feed scaffold, listing page at /news. Inaugural launch post drafted at /news/2026-05-introducing-reality-index (~1,400 words, hybrid manifesto + headline finding). Marked as draft pending Schiff/expert review.

• Sticky site header across all chart pages

  P1 M Currently the brand text links home but the sticky-nav strip from the homepage doesn't appear on chart pages. Adding it across 25+ pages = consistent navigation experience.

• Communications bucket caveat or rebuild

  P1 M Comms grew 15× in our ADI which is partly artifact (1980 = landline only; 2024 = 5 mobile lines + internet + streaming). Either add disclosure text or rebuild as a "communications equivalent" line item that compares like-for-like.

• Tomatoes recent-spike sanity check

  P1 S Tom noted recent tomato news suggests big spike. Our data shows decline 2024→2025. Pull 2026 monthly data to verify whether the spike is in recent months not yet captured in annual averages.

• Add "About" page

  P1 M Done. Page live at about.html. Origin story (5-year journey from manual spreadsheets with Zina to AI-assisted assembly), what Reality Index is and isn't, Tom's bio, honest acknowledgments (Zina, Claude/Anthropic disclosed, pre-launch reviewers, source agencies), contact info. Linked from homepage methodology section and footer.

• Build "How to use the Reality Index" page

  P1 M Done. Page live at for_journalists.html (~1,800 words). Includes citation conventions, 5 common workflows mapping reporting situations to specific Reality Index resources, quick chart reference by topic, embedding guidance, press contact info, and corrections policy.

• Reality Index sub-index category pages (5 categories)

  P1 M Done. Five category landing pages built using consistent template: housing.html (6.11×, 56.3% gap), health.html (15.60×, 299% gap), transportation.html (3.92×, 0.3% gap), food.html (3.03×, 22.5% slower than CPI), energy.html (3.09×, 21% slower than CPI). Each page has: kicker, headline, dek, editorial intro, big-num strip, composite chart vs CPI, item grid with mini-sparklines, methodology notes. Linked from homepage Reality Index section pills and per-category footer links.

• Add deeper history to direct tax burden chart

  P1 M Tom noted this would be valuable. Pre-1980 federal income tax brackets + payroll history would extend the chart back to the 1940s-1950s and show the post-war tax expansion era.

03Nice-to-have / v1.5 (P2)

Items that polish the project but don't block launch. Most of these can ship in v1.1, v1.2, etc., as we iterate publicly.

• Alternative weight sources research

  P2 L BofA Institute, JPMorgan Chase Institute, Visa SpendingPulse research to develop a credit-card-transaction-based weighting scheme for the headline composite. Currently relies on BLS CES weights.

• Wheat commodity vs retail comparison feature

  P2 M Side-by-side: wheat futures price vs flour retail vs bread retail. Shows how commodity volatility translates (or doesn't) into household spending. Strong methodology supporting piece.

• State-by-state tax burden breakdown

  P2 L Current Direct Tax Burden uses national avg state/local rate. State-by-state would let users see "I live in NY, my burden is..." Major UX improvement.

• Pre-1980 historical extension (1970-2025)

  P2 L Done. Reality Index headline rate and sensitivity analysis now span 1970-2025. The 1970s inflation crisis is visible as historical context (1979 peak: RI +16.2% yoy, CPI +11.3%). Full-window finding: RI 12.81× / CPI 8.29× / +54.4% gap over 55 years. 1980-anchored headline (5.16×/32%) preserved as the primary, methodologically clean finding. Pre-1980 disclosure published on the headline chart: independent retail dollar data begins in 1980; the 1970s portion of the line uses BLS subindex chaining (same methodology BLS uses for CPI itself). Sub-index category pages remain 1980-anchored because item-level retail dollar data does not exist pre-1980.

• Geographic variation (metro-level)

  P2 L BLS publishes CPI for major metros separately. Adding "Reality Index: New York vs Houston vs San Francisco" would show how cost of living varies regionally.

• Embed-friendly chart versions

  P2 M Standalone chart embeds with realityindex.co attribution that can be embedded in news articles. Increases distribution.

• Per-chart breadcrumb navigation

  P2 M "Reality Index → Food at home → Eggs" at top of each chart page. Helps orient users coming in from external links.

• Add fish, vegetables (beyond tomatoes), more fruit to food basket

  P2 L Current 13 food items cover the staples but fish was excluded and vegetables/fruit are minimal. Could add apples, oranges, lettuce, frozen vegetables.

• Newsletter signup & monthly Reality Index update

  P2 L Monthly email with the latest data + commentary on the month's most distorted CPI subindex. Builds distribution channel beyond the website.

04Completed

Major work done across the build phase. Useful reference for what the project covers.

• Project domain registered (realityindex.co)

• Editorial design system (paper texture, Source Serif 4 + Inter Tight + JetBrains Mono)

• Headline composite prototype (reality_index_v1.html)

• 13 individual food item charts (eggs, beef, chicken, milk, bread, flour, pasta, cereal, coffee, cheese, bananas, tomatoes, potatoes)

• Energy charts (gasoline, electricity)

• Housing charts (rent of primary residence, FHFA home prices)

• Multi-line health care chart (5 KFF series: family premium, single premium, worker contributions, single deductible)

• Multi-line tuition chart (public 4yr / public 2yr / private 4yr / BLS subindex)

• Direct Tax Burden chart (federal income + payroll + state/local, lines + stacked toggle)

• Postage stamp chart (USPS rate history)

• Reality Index methodology one-pager (~1,800 words, general reader)

• Reality Index methodology paper (~3,800 words, anticipates technical objections)

• ADI basket specification document (detailed 12-section spec)

• American Dream Index calculator (year-by-year 1980-2025, all 10 buckets)

• American Dream Index headline chart (stacked area + dollars/% toggle + CPI counterfactual + bucket breakdowns)

• Sectional buckets chart (food / energy / housing share-of-spending view)

• Homepage with hero + three big tiles + category-grouped chart links

• Cross-page nav: brand text on every chart page links back to homepage

• Reality Index headline inflation rate (the project's defining number)

  Weighted composite using BLS CES Relative Importance weights (Dec 2024). $100 of 1980 goods costs $516 per Reality Index vs $391 per official CPI — RI ran 32.0% faster than CPI over 45 years.

• "What Reality Index Doesn't Measure" methodology essay

  Candid catalog of unmeasured inflation vectors: reverse hedonics (eggs, chicken, airplane seats), denominator problem (gold reference), time costs, hidden fees/shrinkflation, healthcare access vs price, educational outcomes per tuition dollar. Live at what_we_dont_measure.html.

• CPI methodology changes timeline page

  Live at cpi-changes-timeline.html. Plain-language history of major BLS methodology changes: 1983 OER, 1996 Boskin Commission, 1998 hedonic computers, 1999 geometric mean formula, 2002 C-CPI-U, 2017 TCJA tax bracket switch, 2018+ hedonic expansion. Each entry: arithmetic effect, weight in CPI, primary source link, official rationale, critique. Plus alternative-indexes landscape (ShadowStats, MIT BPP, Fed Cleveland Median CPI, Trimmed Mean PCE) and real-world implications (Social Security COLAs, federal tax brackets, TIPS, contracts). Added "CPI Changes" link to top nav across all 42 site pages. Referenced from methodology paper.

• Sensitivity analysis page — five weighting scenarios

  Live at sensitivity.html. Default (CES Relative Importance) 5.16×/+32%; BEA PCE weights 6.27×/+60.6%; CES Aggregate Shares 5.05×/+29.3%; "Austrian critique" 5.61×/+43.7%; Default+Taxes 5.04×/+28.9%. Single comparison chart with all 5 scenarios + CPI baseline, scenario summary grid, per-scenario deep dives with full bucket weight tables. Core argument: the gap exists under every reasonable methodology.

• Reality Index watermark on all chart SVGs

  JS helper that injects 'realityindex.co' watermark at 40% opacity in bottom-right of every chart SVG across 27 pages. Discourages screenshot reuse without attribution.

• "How to use Reality Index" page for journalists, analysts, and researchers

  Press-kit and citation guide. 5 workflows, citation conventions, chart reference, corrections policy.

• Mini-card legends on ADI bucket cards